Milton approaches Florida

Images
GOES-16 Band 13 Infrared (10.3 µm) imagery, 0406-1216 UTC on 9 October 2024 (Click to enlarge)

GOES-16 Infrared Imagery overnight on the 9th of October shows the evolution of Milton as it moves towards landfall over southwestern Florida. Of note is the disappearance of a pronounced eye. Lightning continues within the eye, however, as shown by the GLM overlay below, and deep convection (black/grey in the enhancement applied) continues to develop and wrap around the eye. Satellite estimates of strength (ADT, for example, from here) continue to show a very strong system.

GOES-16 Band 13 Infrared (10.3 µm) imagery, and GLM observations of Flash Extent Density, 0406-1216 UTC on 9 October 2024 (Click to enlarge)

Derived Motion Wind vectors from GOES-16, shown below on top of an Upper Level Water Vapor image at 1201 UTC, show the excellent outflow that is helping to ventilate Milton. There is very strong outflow above 350 mb to the northeast over Florida and the southeastern United States, and a second outflow channel above 250 mb to the west-southwest over the Yucatan and into the Pacific Ocean. The Water Vapor imagery also shows mid-level drying over the western Gulf of Mexico; perhaps some of that dry air is being entrained into the western edges of Milton, but at sunrise, any weakening due to dry air is subtle at best.

GOES-16 Band 8 Infrared (6.19 µm, Upper Level Water Vapor) imagery, and Derived Motion Winds, 1201 UTC on 9 October 2024 (Click to enlarge)

The very strong outflow — a positive for the strength of the storm — also means that Milton is now in an environment of significant vertical wind shear. That is shown in the shear analysis below from the CIMSS Tropical Website.

Deep Shear (200-850 mb) analysis, 1000 UTC on 9 October 2024 (Click to enlarge)

Both mesoscale sectors for GOES-16 are over Milton as of 1200 UTC on 9 October, meaning 30-second imagery is being produced. The 15-minute animation below was retrieved from the CSPP Geosphere site.

GOES-16 Visible Imagery (Band 2, 0.64 µm) 1242-1258 UTC on 9 October 2024

The National Hurricane Center has the latest information on this storm (link). Heavy Rain is overspreading southwest Florida on 9 October in advance of Milton. Conditions will continue to deteriorate during the day.

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