Seasonably cool Fall-like temperatures overspread the western Great Lakes and northern Plains on 5 October. The animation above shows the Day Cloud Phase Distinction overlain with LightningCast probability from 1321-1721 UTC on 5 October (that is, 8:21-12:21 CDT). SPC on this day was anticipating general thunder over northern Minnesota. Given that, and the autumnal temperatures, as shown below (dewpoints in the 40s, temperature in the 50s) — do you think lightning occurred?

Of course, you should expect lightning to occur. The training data set that was used to create the LightningCast probabilities via Machine Learning includes data from all months. Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB is showing glaciation, and LightningCast is highlighting regions where lightning subsequently occurs. Recall that the probabilities are for lightning (in the form of a GLM observation) to occur in the next 60 minutes.

LightningCast probabilities are available online here.

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