MIMIC Total Precipitable Water (TPW) fields, below, show a band a rich moisture over the northern Indian Ocean between the Equator and 15^oN Latitude. By 17 October in the animation, cyclonic motion is diagnosed in the TPW fields between 60^o and 70^o E Longitude. By 18 October, an invest was declared. The toggle below (imagery from the CIMSS/SSEC Tropical Weather Website) shows shear values, Sea-Surface Temperatures, and low-level convergence and upper-level divergence. Shear values are favorable, and a good divergence/convergence couplet over warm waters is apparent.

Metop-B overflew the system shortly after 0500 UTC on 19 October (link) and a closed circulation was apparent near 11^oN, 63^oE. Imagery and winds derived from FY-4A, below, (from this NSMC website) show strong diffluence above the developing system at 1200 UTC on 19 October. The upper-level wind barbs (in red) and mid-tropospheric wind barbs (in green) are nearly parallel, suggesting low shear values.

By 1200 UTC on 20 October, below, a storm has formed in the region of low shear, and landfall on the southern shore of the Arabian Peninsula is forecast.

By 2100 UTC on 21 October 2023, below, a well-developed system was present. Satellite-derived winds suggest an outflow jet to the east along the northern perimeter of the storm.

RCM-2 overflew Tej shortly after 1400 UTC on 22 October 2023 (link). The SAR wind analysis, below, shows a well-defined eye structure at that time to the north of Socotra Island. The wind analysis (here) shows peak winds over 100 knots.

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